Get Expert Player Predictions for D-Backs vs Rockies – Saturday May 16, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 10th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Fernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jose Fernandez’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 88.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 80.6-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to record the most runs (6.77 on average) of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Tomoyuki Sugano will ring up an average of 2.7 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mickey Moniak’s true offensive talent to be a .321, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .108 deviation between that mark and his actual .429 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Compared to their .322 overall projected rate, the .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+2.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 away games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 30% ROI)