Get Betting Tips and Odds for Twins vs Royals – 9/7/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive battle within the American League Central. The Royals hold a slight edge with a record of 77-65, while the Twins are just behind at 76-65. This series is crucial for both teams as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

In their most recent matchup, the Royals fell to the Twins, adding pressure for Alec Marsh, who is projected to start for Kansas City. Marsh enters this game with a 7-8 record and a 4.70 ERA, ranking him as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB per the advanced-stat Power Rankings. His struggles have been evident, as he is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. With the Twins showcasing a potent offense, ranked 8th best in MLB, Marsh will face a tough challenge.

On the flip side, Bailey Ober, the projected starter for Minnesota, is having a strong season with a 12-6 record and a solid 3.95 ERA, ranking him 39th among starting pitchers. Ober’s ability to induce strikeouts (26.3 K%) could be key against a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd least in strikeouts. However, Kansas City’s offense has shown resilience, ranking 12th overall this season, which could provide them with opportunities against a pitcher like Ober who allows a high number of hits.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers are favoring the Twins, who have an implied team total of 4.27 runs. However, given the Royals’ above-average offensive capabilities and the potential for Marsh to outperform expectations, this matchup is shaping up to be more competitive than the odds suggest.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Matt Wallner has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year’s 97.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota’s 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #23 team in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Alec Marsh faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In today’s game, Michael Massey is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.3% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 72 games at home (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.35 Units / 34% ROI)