Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)-205
On September 28, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Phillies enter this game with a strong record of 95-66, showcasing a solid season, while the Twins sit at 70-91, struggling to find their footing. Notably, Cristopher Sanchez is projected to start for Philadelphia, and he delivered an impressive complete game shutout in his last outing, further solidifying his status as one of the top pitchers in the league.
Sanchez ranks as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasting an impressive 13-5 record and a stellar ERA of 2.57 this season. Though he’s projected to allow 1.9 earned runs on average today, his ability to strike out 6.7 batters per outing has been a significant asset for the Phillies. In contrast, Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richard has faced challenges this season, with a 7-4 record and an ERA of 4.27. The projections suggest he could struggle against a potent Philadelphia lineup.
The Phillies’ offense ranks as the 3rd best in MLB and has been a driving force behind their success. They lead the league in team batting average at 2nd overall, and with recent standout performances, they are set up for another strong showing. Conversely, the Twins’ offense ranks 17th, and their .230 batting average places them at 22nd, reflecting their struggles throughout the season.
Given the current odds, the Phillies are sizable favorites with a moneyline of -205, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.67 runs, while the underdog Twins have a low implied total of 3.33 runs. With Sanchez’s elite status on the mound and a dominant offense backing him up, the Phillies appear well-positioned to capitalize on their advantages in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineSimeon Woods Richardson was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+260/-370)Kody Clemens has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 85.7-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineCristopher Sanchez is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #6 HR venue among all parks — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Schwarber usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-205)The 5th-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.