Get Betting Tips and Odds for Rays vs Orioles – 6/29/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays prepare for their matchup on June 29, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Rays come into this game fresh off a decisive 11-3 victory over the Orioles, further cementing their position in the playoff race with a solid 47-36 record. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling at a disappointing 35-47 this season, marking their third consecutive loss in this series.

On the mound, Dean Kremer is set to start for the Orioles. While his 4.60 ERA is indicative of average performance, advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky this year, with a 4.05 FIP indicating better days may be ahead. Kremer’s last outing was promising, as he pitched six innings with just one earned run on June 22. However, he has struggled overall, as evidenced by his Power Rankings standing as the 157th best starting pitcher in MLB.

Taj Bradley, on the other hand, is projected to start for the Rays. With a ranking of 83rd among MLB starters, Bradley is slightly above average and has shown potential with a recent strong outing, tossing seven scoreless innings against the Phillies. His high walk rate could be an issue against the Orioles, who rank 5th in the league for the fewest walks taken.

Offensively, the Rays boast the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their exceptional team batting average, ranking 2nd in the league. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense has struggled, ranking 20th overall. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, the projections suggest that both teams may find ways to score, but the Orioles will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Bradley to turn their fortunes around. With betting lines even, the Orioles’ best hitter is performing well, and could be a key factor in overturning their recent misfortunes.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jonathan Aranda has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball bats like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Gary Sanchez, Ramon Laureano).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.64 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 28 away games (+17.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)