Get Betting Tips and Odds for Rays vs Orioles – 6/29/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 29, 2025, the matchup carries significant weight, especially given the Orioles’ struggles this season. With a record of 35-47, they sit in the basement of the American League East, while the Rays, at 47-36, are looking to solidify their foothold in the playoff race. Yesterday, the Orioles lost a tense battle against the Rays, adding pressure as they aim to turn their season around.

On the mound, Dean Kremer is projected to start for the Orioles. The right-hander has had a rocky season, holding a 6-7 record and a 4.60 ERA, which indicates he has experienced some misfortune this year. His 4.04 FIP suggests he could improve moving forward. Kremer’s projections for today’s game are concerning: he is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, 6.0 hits, and 1.5 walks, all of which could pose problems against a strong Rays offense.

The Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, who has a 5-5 record and an ERA of 4.57. Although his numbers suggest he’s had his share of bad luck as well, Bradley’s ability to strike out 5.3 batters per game could be a deciding factor in this matchup. Notably, he is known for his control issues, but he faces an Orioles offense that is one of the least patient in the league, potentially giving him an advantage.

Offensively, the Rays rank 9th overall and 2nd in batting average, making them a tough challenge for Kremer. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense is ranked 19th, showing some power with a decent home run tally but lacking in overall consistency. With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs, betting markets suggest an expectation for a relatively high-scoring affair, further heightening the stakes for both teams as they look to solidify their positions moving forward.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jonathan Aranda has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball bats like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Colton Cowser, Gary Sanchez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.64 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 28 away games (+17.60 Units / 46% ROI)