Get Betting Tips and Odds for Marlins vs Brewers – 7/27/2025

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Miami Marlins on July 27, 2025, at American Family Field in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in different directions. The Brewers, with a solid record of 61-43, are enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins sit at a mediocre 50-53. In their last game, the Brewers managed to secure a victory over the Marlins, which adds a bit of momentum as they look to extend their dominance in this series.

On the mound, the Brewers are slated to start Brandon Woodruff, who is coming off an impressive season where he holds a 2-0 record with a stellar 1.65 ERA over just three starts. Woodruff’s ability to limit walks (0.0 BB% this year) and his high flyball rate (49% FB) could be beneficial against a Marlins offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 5th lowest in home runs this season. The projections suggest he may face some challenges, particularly with his expected ERA (xERA) indicating he might have been a bit lucky thus far.

Eury Perez will take the mound for the Marlins, and while he boasts a 3.23 ERA over eight starts, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he may not be as effective going forward. Perez’s struggles with innings pitched (projected at just 4.8 today) and his high walk rate (1.4 walks allowed on average) could spell trouble against a Brewers lineup that ranks 2nd in stolen bases, adding another layer of pressure.

Despite the Marlins having a decent batting average (9th in MLB), their overall offensive ranking at 20th indicates they may struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Brewers, while averaging only 4.22 runs according to current odds, are favored with a moneyline of -175, reflecting their potential to outclass the Marlins in this matchup. With Woodruff on the mound, the Brewers look to assert their dominance once again.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Out of all SPs, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2669 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 94.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Brandon Woodruff and his 37.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today’s matchup going up against 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-175)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+17.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 away games (+16.90 Units / 60% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)