New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
(-120/+100)-120
As the Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees on September 19, 2024, this American League matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons. The Yankees, having a strong season with an 89-63 record, are in a good position for the playoffs, while the Mariners, at 77-75, remain in the hunt but are experiencing a more average season. The Yankees took the previous game of this series, showcasing the power of their 1st-ranked home run offense.
On the mound, the Mariners will rely on Logan Gilbert, the 17th-best pitcher according to advanced stats, boasting a solid 3.24 ERA over 30 starts. Despite a 7-11 record, Gilbert’s ability to limit walks (4.6 BB%) could be crucial against the Yankees’ patient lineup, which leads MLB in walks. This could mitigate one of New York’s strengths and tilt the pitching duel slightly in Gilbert’s favor.
For the Yankees, Clarke Schmidt will take the hill, featuring an impressive 2.41 ERA. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Schmidt has a 5-3 record in 13 starts, and his ability to navigate a Mariners offense that ranks 22nd overall and last in team batting average will be pivotal.
Offensively, the Mariners will look to Victor Robles, who has been on fire over the last week with a .563 batting average and 1.319 OPS. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a .350 batting average and 10 RBIs over the same period, highlighting his threat in the lineup.
The betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 51% win probability, projecting a close game with low scoring around 7.0 total runs. With both teams eyeing playoff implications, this matchup promises to be a compelling battle at T-Mobile Park.
New York Yankees Insights
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)Clarke Schmidt’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2483 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2545 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)Recording 19.2 outs per start this year on average, Logan Gilbert ranks in the 100th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Julio Rodriguez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #4 team in baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+14.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+16.45 Units / 51% ROI)