San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
(-120/+100)-150
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the San Diego Padres on June 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in solid positions within the National League. The Brewers sit at 34-29, showcasing an above-average season, while the Padres are slightly ahead with a record of 35-26, marking a good campaign thus far.
In their most recent outing, the Brewers’ Chad Patrick is projected to take the mound, coming off a solid performance that saw him pitch 5.3 innings with an impressive 2.97 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.26 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and the Padres’ offense, which ranks 19th overall, will look to capitalize on any mistakes. Patrick’s high flyball rate (43% this year) could play into his favor, especially as the Padres rank 6th lowest in MLB for home runs with just 54 this season.
On the other side, Randy Vasquez is expected to start for the Padres. Vasquez has also had a rough go, with a 3.99 ERA that belies his 5.55 xFIP, indicating he might be due for a regression. His projected performance of 4.9 innings and 2.8 earned runs is not ideal, and the Brewers will be eager to exploit his weaknesses.
While the Brewers’ offense ranks 23rd overall, they have been bolstered by a standout hitter recently, who has posted an impressive .458 batting average over the past week. This could provide a much-needed spark against a Padres bullpen that ranks 4th best in MLB, though their overall offensive output remains lackluster.
With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Brewers favored at -145, the odds suggest a close matchup. However, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this contest promises to be an intriguing battle.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+125)Out of every team today, the best infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Extreme groundball hitters like Tyler Wade tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chad Patrick.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineThe San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Chad Patrick – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Chad Patrick will record an average of 1.3 singles in today’s game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jake Bauers has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (8th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 104% ROI)