Game Time for Padres vs Cardinals – 8/28/2024

San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the San Diego Padres on August 28, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Cardinals, currently sitting with a record of 65-67, are having an average season and are seeking to regain momentum after losing to the Padres 7-5 in their last matchup. Meanwhile, the Padres boast a solid 76-58 record, making a playoff push as they compete among the top teams in the National League.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Andre Pallante for the Cardinals and Joe Musgrove for the Padres. Pallante is currently ranked as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB, an above-average designation, while Musgrove comes in slightly higher at 47th. Pallante’s most recent outing on August 23 was strong, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. In contrast, Musgrove also excelled in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings. Both pitchers will be aiming to deliver strong performances again.

However, the Cardinals’ offense has struggled this season, ranking 19th in MLB, particularly in home runs where they are 22nd. Andre Pallante’s low strikeout rate (17.9 K%) could pose challenges against the Padres’ offense, known for its discipline and ranked as the 8th best in the league.

Despite the close odds, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees the Cardinals as having slightly better chances than the betting lines suggest, projecting their win probability at 51%. This game could be key for the Cardinals to get back on track and prove they can compete against a strong Padres team.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Joe Musgrove has gone to his slider 7% more often this season (21.5%) than he did last season (14.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.6-mph average last season has lowered to 87.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Pedro Pages has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .287 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .252 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats as a group rank 27th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+15.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+9.25 Units / 51% ROI)