Game Time for Orioles vs Guardians – 8/04/2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 4, 2024, both teams are in the thick of a competitive season, sitting just a game apart in the standings. The Guardians lead the American League Central with a record of 67-43, while the Orioles are holding strong in the AL East with a 66-46 record. This matchup is crucial as both teams look to solidify their playoff positions.

In their last game, the Guardians showcased their offensive prowess, with Jose Ramirez leading the charge, contributing significantly to their recent success. Meanwhile, the Orioles are coming off a solid performance as well, making this series an exciting clash between two of the league’s better teams.

On the mound, the Guardians are set to start Gavin Williams, who has had a rocky season with a 1-3 record and a 3.72 ERA. Despite being ranked 62nd among starting pitchers, projections suggest he may have been lucky thus far, as his xERA indicates potential struggles ahead. Williams is projected to pitch approximately 4.7 innings, which is concerning given he allows an average of 4.4 hits and 2.3 earned runs per outing.

In contrast, the Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, who has been a standout this season with an 11-4 record and a stellar 2.47 ERA, ranking him 21st among MLB starters. Burnes is expected to log around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs on average. His strong performance gives the Orioles a significant edge in the pitching matchup.

Offensively, the Orioles boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their league-leading home run total. The Guardians’ offense, while average overall, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with Ramirez’s recent surge. Given the Guardians’ strong bullpen ranked 3rd in the league, they may find ways to keep the game close, but the Orioles’ offensive firepower and Burnes’ elite pitching make them the favorites heading into this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Corbin Burnes has relied on his cut-fastball 11.5% less often this season (43.9%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Gavin Williams’s 96-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph increase from last year’s 95-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Tyler Freeman is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 97 games (+12.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 66% ROI)