Game Time for Mariners vs Cardinals – 9/08/2024

Seattle Mariners

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals and the Seattle Mariners prepare for their third game of the series on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar situations, with records of 72-70 and 72-71, respectively. While neither squad is in a postseason race, they remain highly competitive. In their last meeting on September 7, the Cardinals secured a 2-0 victory, marking a solid performance that highlighted their pitching prowess.

The matchup features right-handers Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals and Luis Castillo of the Mariners. While Mikolas has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.27 and a win-loss record of 8-10, he is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. His 4.10 xFIP indicates he could be due for better results, especially against a Mariners lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage.

Conversely, Luis Castillo shines with a solid 3.60 ERA and an 11-12 record. His projections show he’ll pitch around 5.8 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs on average, suggesting a favorable outing for him as well. However, Castillo has faced a challenge against the Cardinals offense, which ranks 18th best in MLB, demonstrated by their recent success and the resurgence of players like Lars Nootbaar, who is hitting .444 over the last week.

Despite Mikolas’ struggles, the projections lean slightly towards the Cardinals, with many analysts seeing potential for an upset in this tightly contested clash. Betting markets currently reflect a close game, evident in the Cardinals’ moneyline of +115, suggesting a closely matched showdown at Busch Stadium.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Luis Castillo’s fastball spin rate has decreased 132 rpm this season (2155 rpm) below where it was last season (2287 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Luke Raley has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.6-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Miles Mikolas will average a total of 1.1 singles in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jose Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.303) suggests that Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .245 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+14.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)