Game Time for Cardinals vs Reds – 8/12/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals are set to clash on August 12, 2024, at Great American Ball Park for the first game of their series. Currently, the Reds sit at 57-61, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Cardinals stand at 60-58, experiencing a middling campaign. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum; the Cardinals are not in contention for the division but still have a shot at the Wild Card.

In their last outings, the Reds pulled off a narrow 4-3 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, showcasing some late-game resilience. Meanwhile, the Cardinals suffered a disappointing 8-3 defeat to the Kansas City Royals, adding to their woes. Notably, Sonny Gray of the Cardinals pitched well in his last start, going seven innings and allowing just two earned runs, while Andrew Abbott struggled, yielding six earned runs in his last outing.

Andrew Abbott, projected to take the mound for the Reds, has had an inconsistent season, sporting a 3.70 ERA and ranking as the 153rd best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections show an average of 5.2 innings pitched, but he is expected to allow around 3.0 earned runs, which could pose a challenge for the Reds given their 19th ranked offense this season.

In contrast, Sonny Gray has been exceptional, ranking 20th among MLB starting pitchers, with a solid 3.65 ERA. His high strikeout rate of 30.4% could exploit the Reds’ propensity for whiffing, as they currently rank 5th in the league in strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate of 2535 rpm grades out in the 96th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• As a team, St. Louis Cardinals hitters have performed well as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 3rd-best in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 101.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+9.35 Units / 21% ROI)