Game Time for Cardinals vs Braves – 7/21/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Truist Park on July 21, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Currently sitting at 54-43, the Braves have had a solid season and are contending for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, with a 51-47 record, are also above average but trailing slightly in the standings. Last night, the Cardinals bested the Braves 9-5, marking the second game in the series.

The Braves will be turning to right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, ranked as the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schwellenbach has had an up-and-down season with a 3-4 record and a 4.43 ERA, though his 3.87 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. He’s projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 4.6 batters on average in today’s game. His last outing was stellar, as he went seven innings, allowing just one earned run.

Opposing him is Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Mikolas has struggled this season with a 5.13 ERA and a 7-8 record. His xFIP of 4.22 indicates some bad luck, but his recent form has been shaky; he was roughed up for six earned runs over five innings in his last start. Mikolas is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and strike out 4.0 batters across 5.3 innings.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, supported by the power of Marcell Ozuna, who boasts 28 home runs and a 0.972 OPS. The Cardinals’ offense is slightly behind at 18th, with Alec Burleson leading the charge with a 0.292 batting average and a 0.815 OPS.

The advanced projections favor the Braves, giving them a 58% win probability compared to the Cardinals’ 42%. Atlanta’s bullpen, ranked 7th, will look to hold any late leads, whereas the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks just slightly better at 6th.

Bettors should note the Braves are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. Given Schwellenbach’s potential for positive regression and the Braves’ stronger offensive and bullpen metrics, Atlanta appears well-positioned to bounce back and take this game in the series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Miles Mikolas struggled when it came to striking batters out in his last outing and put up 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Masyn Winn’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 74.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 8.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Utilizing Statcast metrics, Orlando Arcia ranks in the 1st percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .239.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 93 games (+23.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)