Game Time for Braves vs D-Backs – July 08, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves are set to clash on July 8, 2024, at Chase Field in a National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, who hold a 45-45 record, are having an average season, while the Braves, at 49-39, are performing well. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

Arizona will send left-hander Jordan Montgomery to the mound. Montgomery struggled in his last start on June 27, allowing 7 earned runs over just 3 innings. He’ll look to bounce back against a Braves offense that ranks 13th best in MLB. On the other side, Atlanta will counter with Bryce Elder, a right-hander who has had a rocky season with a 5.76 ERA. Despite his 1-3 record, Elder’s xFIP of 4.36 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve.

Offensively, Arizona has been solid, ranking 7th in overall offensive performance and 6th in team batting average. Christian Walker has been their standout hitter, boasting a .268 batting average with 22 home runs and 64 RBIs. Walker has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .407 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs in six games.

The Braves, although having an average offense, have seen strong individual performances. Marcell Ozuna leads the team with a .295 batting average, 23 home runs, and 72 RBIs. Ozzie Albies has also been impressive recently, hitting .391 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs over the last week.

Betting markets indicate a close game, with the Diamondbacks’ moneyline at -105 and the Braves’ at -115. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Diamondbacks to have a 52% win probability, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 49%. With both teams expected to score over 4.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive and potentially high-scoring.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Eddie Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Eddie Rosario may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-110)
  The Atlanta Braves projected batting order grades out as the strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Atlanta’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Arizona’s 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #21 offense in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+20.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+110/-145)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.50 Units / 38% ROI)