Game Recap for Yankees vs Cardinals – Friday, August 15th, 2025

New York Yankees

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the New York Yankees on August 15, 2025, at Busch Stadium, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with something to prove. The Cardinals hold a record of 61-61, showcasing an average season, while the Yankees sit above .500 at 64-57, reflecting their stronger performance this year.

In their last outings, the Cardinals lost a tight game 6-5, continuing a streak of inconsistency, while the Yankees fell to their opponents 4-1, marking a rare setback for a team that ranks as the 2nd best offense in MLB. This matchup will feature two right-handed pitchers: Andre Pallante for the Cardinals and Luis Gil for the Yankees. Pallante has had a particularly rough time recently, having been blown up in his last start on August 9, allowing 6 earned runs over just 2 innings. In contrast, Gil pitched well in his previous game, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs and an impressive 7 strikeouts.

With Pallante’s ERA at 4.95 and a below-average performance projected for today, the Yankees may exploit his high-hit rate. Pallante’s 60% groundball rate could mitigate some of the Yankees’ power, but given their league-leading 191 home runs, he will need to be on his game to avoid getting hit hard.

The Cardinals’ offense struggles, ranking 20th in MLB, while the Yankees are thriving, particularly with their power numbers. The projections favor the Yankees with an implied team total of 4.82 runs compared to the Cardinals’ 4.18. As the teams face off, expect the Yankees to leverage their offensive strengths against a struggling Cardinals pitching staff.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis Gil’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 95th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Considering that flyball batters have a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante and his 58.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today’s matchup facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 106 games (+7.72 Units / 7% ROI)
• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135/+105)
  Andre Pallante has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)