Game Recap for White Sox vs Reds – Wednesday, May 14th, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds

On May 14, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago White Sox for the second game of their series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the White Sox on May 13, where they fell 5-1. While Cincinnati is currently struggling with a record of 20-23, the situation is even more dire for Chicago, who sits at 13-29 and has been underwhelming this season.

Cincinnati is projected to start Nick Lodolo, who has been solid with a 3.23 ERA this year, ranking him as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Lodolo’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out seven batters. His high groundball rate could be an advantage against a White Sox offense that lacks power, having hit only 30 home runs this season—the 3rd least in MLB.

On the other hand, Chicago will send out Davis Martin, whose performance has been lackluster. With a 4.01 ERA, Martin is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, and his projections suggest he may struggle, especially against a Reds lineup that is known for their ability to draw walks. The Reds rank 4th in strikeouts, but Davis Martin’s low strikeout rate may work in his favor, potentially allowing him to negate some of the Reds’ offensive strengths.

With the Reds as heavy favorites, their implied team total of 4.92 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Martin’s struggles. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s implied total sits at just 3.58 runs, underscoring their offensive challenges. As the game approaches, all eyes will be on whether Cincinnati can turn their season around against a struggling opponent.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Davis Martin’s 2387-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 78th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Miguel Vargas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert Jr., Timothy Elko, Michael A. Taylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Spencer Steer’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 86.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.6-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)