Game Recap for Tigers vs Guardians – Sunday, July 6th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on July 6, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League Central matchup. The Guardians, currently sitting at 40-47, are struggling this season and find themselves in the midst of a disappointing campaign. In contrast, the Tigers boast a strong record of 56-34 and are enjoying a successful year. Last night, the Guardians fell to the Tigers by a narrow 1-0 margin, marking another tough loss for a team that has been unable to find consistent offensive production.

On the mound, the Guardians will send Gavin Williams to the hill. Williams, who ranks as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an average season with a 5-4 record and a 3.86 ERA. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. He’s projected to go 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters, but his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks could prove problematic against a potent Tigers lineup.

Opposing him will be Tarik Skubal, the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB this season with an impressive 10-2 record and a stellar 2.15 ERA. Skubal’s last start was exceptional, as he pitched 7 innings with 0 earned runs and 13 strikeouts. Today, he projects for 6.2 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters, solidifying his status as a key asset for Detroit.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 27th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Tigers sit 6th, showcasing their ability to score. With the Guardians’ low implied team total of 3.05 runs, it’s hard to see them overcoming the Tigers’ firepower in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 19.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal places in the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Matt Vierling is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Gavin Williams’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.4% vs. 48.6% last season) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Angel Martinez’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.74 Units / 14% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-220)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)