Game Recap for Rangers vs Angels – 08 July 2024

Texas Rangers

@

Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels are set to host the Texas Rangers on July 8, 2024, in what will be the first game of their series at Angel Stadium. This American League West matchup features two teams struggling to find consistency this season. The Angels come into this game with a 37-52 record, reflecting a tough season, while the Rangers sit at 42-48, slightly below average.

Los Angeles will send Davis Daniel to the mound. Daniel, a right-handed pitcher, has shown flashes of excellence with a 2.70 ERA but has been flagged by his 3.38 xERA, indicating he’s had some luck on his side. Through two starts, Daniel holds a 1-1 record. In his last outing on July 3, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs on 7 hits. Although he has a solid ERA, projections suggest he may struggle, with an average of 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks allowed per game.

Texas counters with Jon Gray, who also throws right-handed. Gray, who has started 15 games this season, boasts a 3.92 ERA. However, like Daniel, his peripherals hint at some regression, with a 4.65 xERA. Gray’s last start was also on July 3, where he lasted 4 innings, giving up 3 earned runs. Projections for Gray indicate he might allow 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks, stats that are slightly concerning.

Offensively, the Angels have struggled, ranking 20th in MLB in team batting average and 15th in home runs. Their bullpen ranks 30th, the worst in the league, which could spell trouble late in the game. Taylor Ward has been their standout hitter, boasting 44 RBIs and 14 home runs this season. Over the last week, Logan O’Hoppe has been the Angels’ best bat, hitting .278 with 5 hits in 5 games.

The Rangers’ offense sits at 16th in MLB, indicating average performance. Marcus Semien has been their most productive hitter, with 57 runs and 47 RBIs. Corey Seager has been hot lately, hitting .421 over the last week with 8 hits and a 1.239 OPS. Their bullpen ranks 18th, slightly better than the Angels but still a potential weak spot.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers an edge with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than their implied 58% from betting odds. They are also projected to score 5.03 runs, a high projection compared to the Angels’ 4.23. Given the Angels’ struggles and the Rangers’ recent offensive surge, Texas looks like the safer bet in this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jon Gray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Among all SPs, Jon Gray’s fastball spin rate of 2033 rpm ranks in the 4th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.6) provides evidence that Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck this year with his 8.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Texas Rangers bats collectively have been one of the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Davis Daniel may not last more than a couple framess since he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Keston Hiura – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Keston Hiura has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+15.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 46 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)