Game Recap for Nationals vs Yankees – Tuesday, August 26th, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Washington Nationals at Yankee Stadium on August 26, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. The Yankees are currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 71-60, while the Nationals are struggling, sitting at 53-78. In their last encounter, the Yankees secured a decisive 10-5 victory, adding to the Nationals’ woes.

Luis Gil is set to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite being ranked 174th among starting pitchers in MLB, Gil’s recent performance was promising, as he allowed just one earned run over five innings in his last start. However, his high walk rate of 15.3% could pose challenges against the Nationals’ low-walk offense, which ranks 4th least in MLB. This matchup might favor Gil, as the Nationals may struggle to capitalize on his control issues.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, who has been slightly more effective this season, ranking 72nd among MLB starters. Gore’s last outing saw him surrender three earned runs over four innings, but his 28.2% strikeout rate could be advantageous against a Yankees lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts. However, Gore’s tendency to give up fly balls could be problematic, especially facing a Yankees offense that leads MLB with 218 home runs.

The Yankees’ offense ranks 1st overall, showcasing their power and ability to score runs. The projections suggest a high-scoring game, with a total set at 9.0 runs. Given the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Gil’s potential to navigate the Nationals’ lineup effectively, they enter this matchup as significant favorites with a moneyline of -180, reflecting a strong chance to continue their winning ways.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (94.7 mph) below where it was last year (95.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Riley Adams is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Luis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Giancarlo Stanton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 94.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)