Game Recap for Marlins vs Nationals – Friday, June 13th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins prepare for their matchup on June 13, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season, with the Nationals holding a record of 30-38 and the Marlins at 25-41. The Nationals are not in contention for a playoff spot and recently fell to the Marlins by a score of 4-3 in their last game on June 12. Both teams are looking to find some momentum, but the odds suggest a close contest in what is the first game of their series.

For this matchup, Nationals’ Mitchell Parker is projected to take the mound against Miami’s Edward Cabrera. Parker has had a somewhat rocky season, currently ranked as the 177th best starting pitcher in MLB, and he carries a 4-6 record with an ERA of 4.44. Notably, he pitched well in his last start on June 7, going six innings with only one earned run, which may provide a confidence boost heading into this game. However, his projections indicate he could struggle as he allows an average of 5.7 hits and 1.4 walks per game, both concerning stats for a pitcher trying to turn around his fortunes.

On the other hand, Cabrera holds a slightly better record of 2-2 with a solid ERA of 3.99, although he is also considered below average overall. His high walk rate of 9.6% could give the Nationals an opportunity to generate offense, especially since they rank 21st overall in batting this season.

While the Nationals’ bats have not been loud, they’ve been effective enough to rank 11th in stolen bases, showcasing a potential avenue for offense against a Marlins team that ranks 27th in home runs. Given the close betting lines—with the Nationals at -115 and the Marlins at -105—this game could indeed be a toss-up. The projections suggest the Nationals may have a slight edge, with their implied team total sitting at 4.30 runs, compared to the Marlins’ 4.20 runs. If the Nationals can capitalize on Cabrera’s control issues, they’ll stand a solid chance to break out of their slump and secure a much-needed win.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball pitchers have a sizeable edge over groundball batters, Edward Cabrera and his 46% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s matchup facing 5 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.1-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Mitchell Parker’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (55.3 compared to 48.6% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.34 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  James Wood has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)