Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-205
On August 21, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians in the second game of their series at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, sitting near the top of the American League standings. The Yankees currently hold a record of 73-53, while the Guardians are just slightly ahead at 73-52. This matchup is crucial as both teams aim to maintain momentum in their playoff pursuits.
In their previous encounter, the Yankees fell to the Guardians 9-5, a game that highlighted their recent struggles despite having one of the strongest offenses in MLB. The Yankees enter this game as significant favorites and are projected to score an impressive 5.11 runs, according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. They boast the 1st best offense overall, underscoring their potential to capitalize on an underwhelming outing from Guardians’ pitcher Joey Cantillo.
Nestor Cortes is projected to start for the Yankees, coming off a solid performance in which he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and registered 9 strikeouts. Cortes ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a respectable ERA of 4.20. Conversely, Joey Cantillo, who is yet to find his footing this season with a 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 6.23, faces a daunting task against a Yankees lineup that excels in drawing walks.
With the Yankees holding a Moneyline of -200, their high implied team total of 4.93 runs reflects the expectation for them to dominate offensively. As Cantillo struggles with control, the Yankees’ potent offense could exploit these weaknesses, setting the stage for an engaging matchup in the Bronx.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)In today’s matchup, Jose Ramirez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Nestor Cortes’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-205)The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+19.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+175)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 114 games (+9.17 Units / 6% ROI)
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.95 Units / 78% ROI)