Game Location for Reds vs Rockies – 4/25/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Colorado Rockies

The Cincinnati Reds visit Coors Field on April 25, 2025, for the first game of their series against the Colorado Rockies. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 4-20, while the Reds hold a slightly better record at 12-13. The Reds are looking to build on their recent success, having won their last game 5-2, while the Rockies are coming off a disappointing 6-2 loss.

On the mound for the Rockies will be Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough start to the season with an 0-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.85. Despite this, he has a promising 3.02 xFIP, indicating he might be due for some positive regression. Freeland’s projected 5.4 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed suggest he might keep the game competitive. However, facing a high-strikeout Rockies offense that leads MLB in strikeouts this year could play into the hands of Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott.

Abbott has been impressive, boasting a 2-0 record and an outstanding 1.64 ERA. His performance projects to keep the Rockies’ struggling offense at bay, as he strikes out an impressive 40.0% of batters faced. The projections indicate he may allow 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.1 innings, a clear advantage for Cincinnati.

Offensively, the Reds rank 10th in MLB, while the Rockies sit at a woeful 28th, underscoring the disparity in talent. With the Rockies’ current moneyline set at +115, betting markets suggest a tight contest, but the Reds’ superior overall performance gives them the edge in this matchup. Expect the Reds to capitalize on their opportunities and take an early lead in this series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Andrew Abbott was firing on all cylinders in his previous game started and conceded 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Reds projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Kyle Freeland is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Ryan McMahon has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 95.7-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 59% ROI)