Game Location for Dodgers vs Tigers – 7/12/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Detroit Tigers

On July 12, 2024, the Detroit Tigers host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Comerica Park for the first game in their interleague series. The Tigers, currently 45-49, are having a below-average season and sit well out of playoff contention. Conversely, the Dodgers, with a 55-39 record, are enjoying a great season and are in the thick of the playoff race. The Tigers are fresh off a dominant 10-1 victory over the Guardians, while the Dodgers are looking to bounce back from a 5-1 loss to the Phillies.

Detroit’s ace Tarik Skubal, the #1 pitcher in MLB according to advanced power rankings, takes the mound with a stellar 2.37 ERA and a remarkable 10-3 record over 18 starts. Skubal’s recent form is impeccable—he struck out 13 and allowed just one earned run in seven innings pitched in his last outing on July 7. Skubal’s elite control (4.6 BB%) will be tested against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.

On the flip side, James Paxton takes the ball for Los Angeles. Despite a solid 7-2 record, Paxton’s 4.24 ERA and an alarming 5.18 xFIP suggest regression is on the horizon. Paxton’s below-average strikeout rate (4.4 projected K’s today) and propensity to allow hits (5.6 projected) could spell trouble against any lineup, even one as inconsistent as Detroit’s.

The Tigers’ offense remains a major concern, ranked 25th overall in MLB with weak showings in batting average (24th), home runs (22nd), and stolen bases (27th). Riley Greene has been a bright spot, boasting a .266 average and an .856 OPS this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers flaunt the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st overall, 6th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Shohei Ohtani is leading the charge with a .314 average and a 1.026 OPS.

While the Tigers are favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors them with the same win probability. The game total is a low 7.5 runs, with Detroit’s implied team total at 4.06 and Los Angeles at 3.44. Skubal’s elite status should give the Tigers an edge, especially given Paxton’s struggles this season. With the Tigers’ bullpen ranked 14th and the Dodgers’ 8th, late-game heroics might be in play, but the Tigers have the upper hand to start this series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• James Paxton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  James Paxton’s curveball rate has jumped by 9.1% from last year to this one (19.3% to 28.4%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  There has been a decrease in Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.3 mph last year to 84.8 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+130)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Tarik Skubal’s 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph increase from last year’s 95-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Despite posting a .209 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Baez has suffered from bad luck given the .081 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Detroit Tigers bats as a unit rank near the cellar of the league this year ( 9th-worst) when it comes to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+8.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)