Game Location for Braves vs Phillies – 8/29/25

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 29, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current momentum. The Phillies sit at a solid 77-57, currently battling for playoff positioning in the National League East, while the Braves are struggling at 61-73 and have been eliminated from winning their division. In their last outing, the Phillies secured a decisive victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Ranger Suarez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. With a Power Rankings standing as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his season has been impressive, holding a 10-6 record with a 3.07 ERA. However, projections suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 3.58 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Suarez will be facing Bryce Elder, who has struggled with a 6.12 ERA and a 5-9 record this year, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB according to the projections.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 8th in MLB, with their batting average being 3rd best, indicating a high-level performance at the plate. They are projected to score 5.09 runs tonight against Elder, who is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs on average. In contrast, the Braves’ offense is middle-of-the-pack, ranking 14th overall but 19th in batting average, which suggests they may face challenges against Suarez’s solid control.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs and the Phillies as heavy favorites, bettors will want to consider the matchup closely. The combination of Suarez’s effectiveness and the Phillies’ strong offensive display could lead to another successful night at Citizens Bank Park.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 12th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• As a team, Atlanta Braves bats have done poorly as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 4th-worst in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #7 HR venue in the majors — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Max Kepler has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 111 games (+12.41 Units / 9% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 30% ROI)