Game Location for Blue Jays vs Orioles – 7/30/24

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 30, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, two teams with contrasting seasons and pitching matchups will clash in this American League East showdown. The Orioles, leading the division with a 63-44 record, are having a stellar year, while the Blue Jays, at 50-57, find themselves struggling to stay afloat.

The Orioles are projected to start right-hander Corbin Burnes, who has been exceptional this season. Burnes, currently ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB by the leading projection system THE BAT X, boasts an impressive 2.45 ERA and a 10-4 Win/Loss record across 21 starts. Though his 3.41 xFIP suggests some luck, his current form is undeniably strong, projecting to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs on average.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s season has been less consistent, with an ERA of 3.78 and an 8-9 Win/Loss record. Ranked 67th among starting pitchers, Bassitt’s 4.30 SIERA indicates he has also been somewhat fortunate. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs on average, which could spell trouble against a potent Orioles lineup.

Offensively, the Orioles have been a powerhouse, ranking 3rd in overall offense, 7th in team batting average, and 1st in home runs this season. They are expected to challenge Bassitt significantly. Cedric Mullins has been a standout recently, hitting .333 with an OPS of 1.178 over the last week.

In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense has struggled, ranking 19th overall and 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. Despite this, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on a tear, hitting .500 with a 1.608 OPS and four home runs over his last seven games.

The Orioles are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -195, implying a 64% chance of victory, while the Blue Jays sit at +165 with just a 36% implied win probability. Given the Orioles’ strong season, powerful offense, and Burnes on the mound, they are well-positioned to take this third game of the series. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair, which could favor Baltimore given their offensive prowess.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Chris Bassitt has gone to his four-seamer 6.1% less often this year (3.2%) than he did last year (9.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively grade out 26th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Corbin Burnes has seen a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2726 rpm over the whole season to 2639 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ramon Urias has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games (+18.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 53% ROI)