New York Yankees
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-120/+100)+115
On May 30, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Yankees at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees holding a 35-20 record while the Dodgers sit at 34-22. The last time these teams took the field, the Yankees secured a narrow 1-0 victory, while the Dodgers are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 7-4 loss in their previous game.
Starting for the Dodgers, Tony Gonsolin has had an average season, ranking #101 among MLB pitchers and posting a 4.68 ERA. His recent outings suggest a potential for improvement, indicated by a 4.16 xFIP, but he faces a powerful Yankees lineup that leads MLB with 88 home runs this season. Gonsolin’s high flyball rate (42% FB) could be detrimental against such a potent offense, especially considering his tendency to issue walks (11.1 BB%) that could further escalate the Yankees’ scoring opportunities.
On the other side, Max Fried, projected to start for New York, is having an elite season with a 1.29 ERA and an impressive 7-0 record. Fried’s strong groundball rate (53% GB) should help neutralize the Dodgers, who rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB and have demonstrated great power with 87 home runs. However, Fried’s low walk rate (5.8 BB%) may limit the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on their patient approach at the plate.
According to projections, the Dodgers have an implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Yankees sit at a higher 4.50 runs. With both teams battling for supremacy in this highly-anticipated series opener, expect a competitive game that could hinge on the performances of Gonsolin and Fried.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)Max Fried was on point in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Paul Goldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.334 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .347 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Tony Gonsolin is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Shohei Ohtani has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 102.2-mph average to last season’s 99-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The 10.7% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #4 club in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.52 Units / 25% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.55 Units / 63% ROI)