Game Highlights for Rockies vs Nationals – August 20, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 20, 2024, both teams are looking to break out of disappointing seasons. The Nationals sit at 56-69, while the Rockies are struggling even more at 46-79. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they seek to build momentum in what has been a challenging year.

In their last game on August 18, the Nationals secured a 6-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, marking a much-needed win. Meanwhile, the Rockies also found success, edging out the San Diego Padres 3-2. Despite their recent wins, both teams are not in playoff contention, making this series about pride and performance rather than postseason aspirations.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start DJ Herz, who has had an average season with a 2-5 record and a 4.25 ERA. Herz is known for his high strikeout rate, boasting a 28.3% strikeout percentage, which could play to his advantage against a Rockies lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts. Conversely, the Rockies will counter with Austin Gomber, who has struggled, posting a 3-8 record and a 4.82 ERA. Gomber’s low strikeout rate of 16.9% could be problematic against a Nationals offense that has shown signs of life.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Nationals a favorable outlook, projecting them to score 4.35 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 3.65 runs. With both teams’ bullpens ranked poorly—29th for the Nationals and 24th for the Rockies—this game could hinge on the starting pitchers’ ability to go deep into the game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Austin Gomber’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (58.8% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jordan Beck has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 75.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  DJ Herz was on point in his last outing and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  James Wood is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 88 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)