Game Highlights for Padres vs Cardinals – August 27, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On August 27, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium, marking the second game of their series. Currently, the Padres are in a strong position, sitting at 75-58 and boasting the 8th best offense in MLB. In contrast, the Cardinals are having an average season at 65-66, with their offense ranked only 20th overall. This matchup carries significant weight for both teams, particularly for the Padres as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last game, the Padres emerged victorious, showcasing their well-rounded capabilities. They have been led by Manny Machado, who has been particularly hot, recording 8 hits and 6 RBIs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are looking to find some momentum, with Luken Baker stepping up as their best hitter in the last 7 games.

On the mound, Miles Mikolas is set to take the ball for the Cardinals. Despite being ranked 138th among starting pitchers, he has had a mix of luck and skill this season, as evidenced by his 5.19 ERA and 4.15 xFIP. Mikolas projects to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his low strikeout rate of 16.5% could be a concern against a low-strikeout Padres lineup.

Dylan Cease, projected to start for the Padres, holds a much stronger position as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB. With a solid 3.43 ERA and an average projection of 5.6 innings pitched, he should be able to keep the Cardinals’ offense in check.

The projections suggest that the Cardinals may underperform their implied team total of 3.73 runs, while the Padres are expected to fare better with a higher total of 4.27 runs. Ultimately, this game could hinge on how well Mikolas can manage the potent Padres lineup, making it a critical matchup in the series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity has risen 1.4 mph this year (96.3 mph) over where it was last season (94.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Over the last 7 days, David Peralta’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Projected catcher Luis Campusano profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Miles Mikolas is expected to ring up an average of 16.5 outs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Lars Nootbaar has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats collectively rank 27th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+4.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)