Game Highlights for Orioles vs Nationals – April 22, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Washington Nationals

On April 22, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Baltimore Orioles in an intriguing Interleague matchup at Nationals Park. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Nationals sitting at 9-13 and the Orioles slightly better at 9-12. The Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, who has shown promise with a solid 1.85 ERA, but his 4.44 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat lucky so far. Conversely, Dean Kremer, the Orioles’ starter, has a troubling 6.41 ERA and a 4.53 xFIP, suggesting he might be due for improvement despite his recent struggles.

The Nationals’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent run support. However, they have shown some power, ranking 14th in home runs, which could be crucial against Kremer, who has been prone to allowing runs. Meanwhile, the Orioles boast the 11th best offense and rank 6th in home runs, showcasing their potential to capitalize on mistakes, particularly with Parker’s tendency to allow a high number of hits.

Notably, Mitchell Parker is a high-groundball pitcher (50% GB), which could play to his advantage against the Orioles’ powerful lineup. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for scoring. Betting markets favor the Orioles with a moneyline of -135, while the Nationals sit at +115. The projections indicate a closer contest than the odds might suggest, especially with Parker’s recent form and the Nationals’ ability to produce timely hits.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (59.4% compared to 52.9% last season) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles batters jointly have been among the best in the majors since the start of last season (3rd-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2164-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 9th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  James Wood has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Gary Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)