Game Forecast: Pirates vs Giants Match Preview – 7/29/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

San Francisco Giants

On July 29, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oracle Park in what marks the second game of their series. The Giants, sitting at 54-53, have had an average season, while the Pirates are struggling significantly with a record of 45-62. In their previous matchup, the Giants managed to edge out the Pirates, continuing to build on their recent momentum.

San Francisco is projected to start Justin Verlander, a right-handed pitcher who, despite a Win/Loss record of 1-8 this season, is somewhat reliable with an ERA of 4.70. However, his advanced-stats Power Ranking places him as the 135th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, which reflects below-average performance. Verlander’s projections indicate he may allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 4.8 batters, yet he also projects to give up 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks, which could spell trouble against any offense.

On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher whose 7-5 record and 3.82 ERA suggest better performance. Nevertheless, his xFIP of 4.81 indicates that he may not sustain this success. Falter’s projections show he is likely to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which underscores his inconsistency.

Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, while the Pirates sit at the bottom with the 30th spot. The Giants’ batting struggles are compounded by their lack of power, with only 100 home runs this season, placing them 6th least in the league. In contrast, the Pirates have the fewest home runs overall, which could provide Verlander an edge as he faces a lineup that has consistently struggled to capitalize on fly balls.

Given the Giants’ bullpen ranking 7th best in MLB, they may have the advantage if the game is close late. With a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, San Francisco will look to leverage their pitching strength against a Pirates offense that has faltered all season long.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Bailey Falter has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Bats such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Justin Verlander who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Justin Verlander has utilized his slider 11.6% more often this season (30.9%) than he did last year (19.3%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jung Hoo Lee is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 105 games (+21.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)