Game Forecast: Padres vs Brewers Head-to-Head Analysis Sunday June 8th, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 8, 2025, the stakes are higher than ever in this critical matchup. The Brewers aim to maintain their momentum after a close 4-3 victory over the Padres yesterday, which puts them at 35-30 for the season. Meanwhile, the Padres stand at 36-27 and are looking to bounce back after the tough loss.

On the mound, the Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the hill, a right-hander ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Peralta’s impressive 2.92 ERA suggests he’s been effective this season, although his 4.05 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate. He projects to pitch about 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs. Peralta’s flyball tendencies could play favorably against a Padres lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 25th in homers this season.

In contrast, the Padres will counter with Ryan Bergert, who has had limited exposure this year with only one start and five relief appearances. Despite a stellar 2.00 ERA, Bergert’s projections are concerning, with a 5.58 xFIP suggesting he might struggle against a Brewers offense ranked 23rd overall. Bergert’s ability to keep runs off the board will be crucial, especially given the Brewers’ recent offensive struggles.

The Brewers’ bullpen ranks 16th in MLB, while the Padres boast a much stronger 3rd place ranking, which could play a pivotal role as the game progresses. With the Brewers favored at a moneyline of -175, they carry an implied team total of 4.79 runs, while the Padres are projected at just 3.71 runs. This matchup, part of a crucial series, could be a turning point for both teams as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Ryan Bergert – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Given that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Ryan Bergert and his 35.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this game facing 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme groundball bats like Tyler Wade tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Freddy Peralta’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (59.9 compared to 53.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jake Bauers has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Bergert struggles to strike batters out (8th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit place 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under Game Total
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)