San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-155
On June 8, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres at American Family Field for the third game of their series. The Brewers currently sit at 35-30, enjoying an above-average season, while the Padres, with a record of 36-27, are having a solid campaign. The Brewers are coming off a challenging game where they struggled offensively, but they hope to bounce back against a Padres team that has shown its vulnerabilities.
Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. He ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a commendable 2.92 ERA this season. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. Peralta’s ability to limit earned runs—projected at just 2.5 today—will be crucial against a Padres offense that has struggled with power, ranking 25th in home runs this season.
On the other hand, Ryan Bergert will start for the Padres. Although he has an impressive 2.00 ERA, he has only started once this year, and his xFIP of 5.58 indicates he may not sustain this level of success. Bergert’s average projected performance of 4.5 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed does not inspire confidence.
The Brewers’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, and while they excel in the stolen base department, they need to generate more power. Conversely, the Padres’ offense is slightly better, ranking 19th overall. With a Game Total of 8.5 runs set at an average level, the Brewers enter as the favorites with a moneyline of -160, signaling a strong belief in their ability to win this matchup. As both teams vie for a crucial win, the matchup promises to be an intriguing battle on the diamond.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Given that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Ryan Bergert and his 35.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this game facing 3 opposing GB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Extreme groundball bats like Tyler Wade tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Freddy Peralta’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (59.9 compared to 53.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)In the last two weeks, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit place 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.