Game Forecast: Mets vs Brewers Head-to-Head Analysis Saturday September 28th, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

With the MLB postseason on the horizon, two National League contenders, the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets, are set to clash at American Family Field on September 28, 2024. The Brewers have been in great form, sporting a 92-68 record, which puts them in a strong position for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mets are not far behind with a good 87-71 record and are keen on securing their Wild Card spot. Milwaukee gained the upper hand in their last meeting, defeating the Mets 8-4 on September 27.

Starting on the mound for the Brewers will be Colin Rea, a right-hander who has shown inconsistencies this season. Although he boasts a respectable 12-5 win/loss record with a 4.17 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he has benefited from a bit of luck. The projections expect him to turn in an average performance today, which includes 4.7 innings with 2.4 earned runs and 4 strikeouts, numbers that don’t inspire too much confidence.

David Peterson will take the ball for the Mets. The lefty has demonstrated flashes of brilliance with a 3.08 ERA, indicating he has been one of the better pitchers in these matchups. However, like Rea, his peripheral stats hint at potential regression. Expect Peterson to give a similar performance, with 4.8 innings of work, allowing 2.4 earned runs and recording 4.8 strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams are relatively matched. The Brewers boast the 10th best offense overall and have power to make an impact, ranking 15th in home runs. However, their speed is a game-changer, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. Conversely, the Mets, who have the 8th best offense, rely more on power, with their 6th ranking in home runs. This power could exploit Rea’s high-flyball tendency, potentially turning fly balls into home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this one as a close matchup, giving both teams a 50% win probability. However, the Mets have a slight edge in terms of the projected runs, with 4.59 compared to the Brewers’ 4.40. With Milwaukee holding a minor advantage according to betting odds, their fans will hope the team continues their winning ways against a resilient Mets squad.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jose Iglesias has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colin Rea to throw 76 pitches in today’s game (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Willy Adames usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 159 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+18.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 62% ROI)