Game Forecast: Brewers vs Giants Head-to-Head Analysis Wednesday April 23rd, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to Oracle Park on April 23, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Giants, currently holding a record of 15-9, are aiming to bounce back after a tough 11-3 defeat yesterday at the hands of the Brewers, who improved to 13-11 after their victory. This matchup promises intrigue, particularly given that it’s the third game in their ongoing series.

On the mound, the Giants are set to feature Logan Webb, who has been exceptional this season, posting a superb 2.40 ERA while ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB. Webb’s last start was particularly impressive—he went 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and racking up 12 strikeouts. His projections today suggest he will pitch around 6.4 innings with an elite average of only 2.0 earned runs allowed.

Facing Webb will be Freddy Peralta for the Brewers, who brings a solid 1.91 ERA into the game. However, he has seen a bit of luck this season, as his 3.61 xFIP suggests potential regression. Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher, which might give him an edge against the Giants’ offense that ranks 6th in most strikeouts in the league.

Despite the Giants’ setback yesterday, their elite bullpen ranks 3rd in MLB, which adds a layer of depth to their pitching strategy. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with a game total set at just 6.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a tightly contested game.

In terms of hitting, the Giants’ best hitter has been consistent, showcasing a .315 batting average and a solid 0.947 OPS this season. In contrast, the Brewers’ best hitter has surged recently, batting .429 over the past week, so both lineups have talent that could shine under the right circumstances. Ultimately, San Francisco’s solid pitching and home-field advantage make them the favored side in this contest.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Freddy Peralta has gone to his non-fastballs 6% less often this season (40.2%) than he did last year (46.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all SPs, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2070.4 rpm grades out in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
  Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)