Game Breakdown: Cardinals vs Pirates Head-to-Head Insights 4/9/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 9, 2025, both teams are looking to find their footing in the National League Central. The Pirates currently sit at 4-8, struggling through a rough start to the season, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 5-6, but still below average. Yesterday, the Cardinals managed a narrow victory, which could give them a slight edge in momentum heading into this matchup.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, who has had a rocky start with a 1-1 record and an alarming 7.45 ERA. However, his 4.71 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who carries a 7.00 ERA and has shown some inconsistency as well, but is considered an average pitcher.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 24th in MLB, struggling with both their batting average and home run production. They do, however, excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd in the league. In contrast, the Cardinals boast the 2nd best offense overall, leading the league in batting average and ranking 5th in home runs. This disparity in offensive firepower could be a significant factor in the game.

Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with the Pirates at -105 and the Cardinals at -115. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a low-scoring affair. With the Pirates’ pitching issues and their underperforming offense, the Cardinals seem to hold the upper hand, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Erick Fedde’s 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brendan Donovan has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last year’s 88.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.7% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball bats like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)