Game Breakdown: Astros vs Braves Team Stats and Insights – September 13, 2025

Houston Astros

@

Atlanta Braves

On September 13, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Houston Astros for the second game of their interleague series at Truist Park. In their previous matchup, the Braves struggled, suffering a lopsided defeat to the Astros by a score of 11-3. The Braves have had a rough season, currently sitting at 65-82, while the Astros are performing well with an 80-68 record.

Projected starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Hunter Brown present a stark contrast in terms of performance this season. Elder, ranked as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has a Win/Loss record of 7-9 and an ERA of 5.35. Although he pitched well in his last start, allowing just one earned run over six innings, his overall numbers suggest he has been unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today while allowing 2.9 earned runs, which is below average.

In contrast, Brown has been a standout this season, ranking 21st among starting pitchers. With an impressive 11-7 record and an excellent 2.25 ERA, he has proven to be a reliable option for the Astros. He also pitched effectively in his last outing, delivering six scoreless innings while striking out eight batters. Brown is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is average, and he should continue to be a key asset for Houston.

While the Braves’ offense ranks 16th in MLB, they struggle with a low batting average, currently sitting at 21st. In contrast, the Astros’ offense has performed better overall, ranking 13th, with a solid batting average of 7th. Betting markets reflect this matchup as competitive, with the Braves at +115 and the Astros at -135. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all SPs, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 96 mph is in the 89th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph dropping to 82.9-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.9% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Considering that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Bryce Elder (48.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 131 games (+16.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 37% ROI)