Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-120
As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on August 13, 2024, they find themselves in a tight race within the American League Central. The Twins currently hold a record of 66-52, while the Royals are just behind at 65-54. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to solidify their positions in a competitive division.
In their previous encounter on August 12, the Twins secured a convincing 8-3 victory over the Royals. This win showcased the Twins’ offensive prowess, which ranks as the 6th best in MLB this season. Leading the charge has been Willi Castro, who has been a standout performer throughout the year. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton has been heating up in the last week, boasting a 1.046 OPS over his last five games.
On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Randy Dobnak, who has struggled this season with a 5.87 ERA and has yet to start a game. However, his 4.30 xFIP suggests that he may be due for some positive regression. Facing him will be Seth Lugo of the Royals, who has been excellent this year with a 2.72 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 13-6. Lugo’s performance has been impressive, but projections indicate he might be due for a slight downturn.
Betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Twins currently at -125 and the Royals at +105. The projections suggest both teams will score in the mid-4s, with the Twins expected to score 4.66 runs on average. As the series continues, the Twins will look to capitalize on their recent momentum and take a commanding lead in the series.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Seth Lugo has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 5.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#1-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- As a team, Kansas City Royals hitters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Minnesota Twins has been 116.8 mph this year, making them the #10 group of hitters in baseball by this metric.Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+14.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+22.50 Units / 132% ROI)