Follow the Live Updates for Mets vs Cubs – 9/24/2025

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

On September 24, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the New York Mets in a pivotal matchup at Wrigley Field. Both teams are in the midst of competitive seasons, with the Cubs currently at 88-69 and the Mets sitting at 81-76. This series has significant implications, especially for the Cubs, who are vying for a strong playoff position. In their last game, the Cubs managed a hard-fought victory, solidifying their standing in the National League.

Matthew Boyd, projected to start for the Cubs, enters the game with a solid record of 13-8 and an impressive ERA of 3.20. However, it’s worth noting that his 4.18 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, hinting at potential regression. Boyd’s high flyball rate (40%) could be a concern against a powerful Mets offense that has smacked 218 home runs this year, ranking 5th in MLB.

On the other side, Jonah Tong takes the mound for the Mets. With a less impressive ERA of 5.94 and a modest strikeout rate, Tong will face a Cubs lineup that has ranked as the 10th best offense in the league. The projections favor Tong to perform better than his current numbers suggest, but given the Cubs’ strengths, they could exploit his high-walk tendencies. Chicago’s offense is patient and ranks among the top in walks drawn, which could give them an advantage.

Betting markets seem to view this as a close contest, with the Cubs favored at -125. Given the Cubs’ overall stronger performance metrics and recent success, they appear poised to secure another win against the Mets.

New York Mets Insights

• Jonah Tong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jonah Tong’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 75th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .262 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .306.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 17.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Matthew Boyd falls in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)
  Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under Total Bases
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 150 games (+14.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)