Follow the Live Updates for Marlins vs Blue Jays – 9/27/2024

Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays gear up to host the Miami Marlins at Rogers Centre on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention, with seasons they’d rather forget. The Blue Jays, having a below-average season with a 74-85 record, will aim to end on a high note against the Marlins, who have struggled even more, sitting at 59-100.

The pitching matchup features Jose Berrios for Toronto and Adam Oller for Miami. Despite Berrios’s underwhelming Power Ranking at 174th, he boasts a solid 3.38 ERA this season, indicating he’s been effective despite some luck. He has managed a commendable 16-10 win/loss record over 31 starts. His control could be tested against a Marlins lineup that rarely draws walks. Berrios is projected to handle 5.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, a statistic that favors the Blue Jays.

On the other side, Adam Oller’s performance has been less inspiring. With a 5.06 ERA and a 1-4 record over seven starts, Oller ranks as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. His high-flyball tendency might be mitigated by Toronto’s lack of power at the plate, ranking 25th in home runs this year. However, he is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.2 innings, creating an opportunity for the Blue Jays’ average offense to capitalize.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 15th overall, highlighting potential despite their struggles with power. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ offense is near the bottom at 29th. The projections see Toronto as a big favorite, with a projected win probability of 62% compared to an implied 63% from the odds. The Blue Jays are expected to score around 4.62 runs, while the Marlins are expected to muster just 3.79.

This first game of the series presents a chance for the Blue Jays to assert dominance at home, with Berrios likely to outshine Oller on the mound. While both teams look toward next season, tonight’s matchup offers an opportunity for Toronto to bolster their spirits.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Adam Oller has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.96 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.42 — a 0.53 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Kyle Stowers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-190)
  The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Nathan Lukes will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 away games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-180)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 48 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)