Follow the Live Updates for Athletics vs Rangers – 4/29/2025

Athletics

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on April 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight battle with identical records of 15-14. This matchup is crucial, especially after the Athletics edged out the Rangers 2-1 in their previous contest on April 28. The stakes are high as both teams look to solidify their standing in the competitive American League West.

On the mound, the Rangers are set to start Jacob deGrom, who is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his elite status, deGrom is still searching for his first win of the season, holding a 0-1 record with a solid 3.33 ERA. However, his 4.42 FIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far, which could be a concern against a potent Athletics lineup that ranks 9th in MLB offense and has belted 38 home runs this season.

The Athletics will counter with Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher who has yet to start a game this year but boasts a perfect 0.00 ERA in three relief appearances. However, his 5.40 xFIP indicates that he may not sustain this level of performance. The Rangers’ offense has struggled overall, ranking 26th in MLB, but they do have some power potential, ranking 13th in home runs.

The projections favor the Rangers, with a high implied team total of 4.93 runs for today’s game. Given the strength of deGrom on the mound and the Rangers’ need to bounce back from a tough loss, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob Lopez to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Lawrence Butler has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.5% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Considering the 0.92 deviation between Jacob deGrom’s 9.56 K/9 and his 10.48 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform better the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jonah Heim has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season’s 88.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games at home (+11.90 Units / 75% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+170)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+220/-300)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+8.90 Units / 89% ROI)