Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-165
On September 23, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting matchup in the American League East. The stakes are high, as the Blue Jays currently hold a solid 90-66 record and are riding a wave of confidence following their most recent victory, while the Red Sox stand at 85-71, looking to keep their momentum going.
The Blue Jays’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd overall in MLB this season and boasting the 1st best team batting average. With Kevin Gausman projected to start, he brings his above-average credentials to the mound despite a Win/Loss record of 10-10. Gausman’s strong ERA of 3.38 is complemented by his ability to manage earned runs, projecting to allow only 2.5 runs and strike out 5.8 batters on average today. However, he faces a notable challenge against the Red Sox lineup, which ranks 8th in the league and has been performing well.
Lucas Giolito will take the hill for Boston. While his 10-4 record looks impressive, his 3.46 ERA alongside a higher xFIP of 4.50 suggests he may not be as reliable as his record indicates. The projections hint at a tough day for Giolito, who is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs and struggle with strikeouts, facing a Blue Jays team that has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB.
With the Blue Jays favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.44 runs, they hold a distinct advantage in this matchup. The combination of Gausman’s talent and the Blue Jays’ powerful offense could prove decisive in this crucial game.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+140)The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Ceddanne Rafaela’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.9-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)Kevin Gausman has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Boston’s #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Daulton Varsho, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Toronto Blue Jays offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 142 games (+20.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+140)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 100 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)