
New York Yankees

Cincinnati Reds
(-105/-115)+105
The Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park on June 23, 2025, in the first game of an Interleague series. The Reds, currently sitting at 40-38, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast a strong record of 45-32, marking them as one of the top teams in the league. Notably, the Reds won their last game against the Miami Marlins by a score of 4-1, though this was overshadowed by the Yankees’ 4-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays.
On the mound, the Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has had a solid year with a 3.71 ERA and a Power Ranking of 83rd among all MLB starters. In his previous outing on June 18, he pitched well, going six innings with just two earned runs. However, Lodolo faces a tough test against a Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing power with 27 home runs from their best hitter this season.
Allan Winans, the Yankees’ right-handed starter, has struggled this season and is projected to allow 2.9 earned runs over five innings. His last start was particularly rough, allowing seven earned runs in just three innings against the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees will look to capitalize on this matchup, especially considering Lodolo’s tendency to allow a high number of hits.
The projections suggest a high-scoring game, with the Game Total set at 10.5 runs. With the Yankees having an implied team total of 5.44 runs and the Reds at 5.06, bettors might find value in the Reds’ underdog status at +105. Given the Yankees’ offensive strength and Lodolo’s recent form, this matchup is poised to be an exciting contest.
New York Yankees Insights
- Allan Winans – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Allan Winans’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.2% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Typically, hitters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Lodolo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Nick Lodolo’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 94.1-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Christian Encarnacion-Strand is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+17.02 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+10.95 Units / 55% ROI)