San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-110
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on August 26, 2025, the stakes are high. Both teams are in the thick of competitive seasons, with the Mariners holding a record of 71-61 and the Padres at 74-58. The Mariners are coming off a strong performance, having secured a victory in their last game, while the Padres are looking to bounce back after a tough loss.
The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Luis Castillo for the Mariners and Dylan Cease for the Padres. Castillo, ranked as the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has had an average season with an ERA of 3.57 and a Win/Loss record of 8-7. However, he has shown some vulnerabilities, projecting to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.5 hits today, which could be a concern against a potent San Diego lineup.
On the other hand, Dylan Cease stands out as the 25th best pitcher in MLB, with a 4.71 ERA and a challenging 6-11 record. His projections suggest he could perform better than his current numbers indicate, with a favorable matchup against a Mariners offense that ranks 3rd in home runs and strikes out frequently. Cease’s high strikeout rate may give him an edge here, but he must navigate the Mariners’ power-hitting prowess.
Offensively, the Mariners rank 12th overall, fueled by an impressive home run count, while the Padres sit at 18th, struggling with power as evidenced by their 29th ranking in home runs. The Mariners’ bullpen, ranked 4th, could play a crucial role in this tightly contested game, especially against a Padres bullpen that is currently ranked 1st.
With both teams’ moneylines set at -110, betting markets view this as a closely matched game. However, the Mariners’ solid home performance and their ability to capitalize on Cease’s flyball tendencies may give them the edge they need to secure a win.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Dylan Cease’s 2551-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 97th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Jake Cronenworth’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.3-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)When it comes to his home runs, Eugenio Suarez has been very fortunate this year. His 45.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.0.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 112 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 122 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.70 Units / 37% ROI)