Find the TV Channel Information for Blue Jays vs Mariners – 07 July 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays face off on July 7, 2024, at T-Mobile Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are on different trajectories this season, with the Mariners sporting a 49-42 record and having an above-average season, while the Blue Jays are struggling at 40-49.

Yesterday, the Blue Jays edged out a close 5-4 victory against the Mariners. This loss was particularly notable as both teams had an identical closing Moneyline price of -110, indicating a game expected to be tightly contested.

Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound, who has been one of the best pitchers this season, ranking as the 16th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Kirby has a strong 3.32 ERA in his 18 starts this season and is projected to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average. Despite his high-flyball tendencies (38 FB%), Kirby may hold an edge against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 28th in home runs this season. His ability to limit walks (0.7 projected today) and strikeouts (5.0 projected) should also play a crucial role.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios, who has had a mixed season. Although his 3.63 ERA looks good on paper, his 4.50 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat lucky and might regress. Berrios’s low strikeout rate (17.6 K%) could be beneficial against a Mariners offense that leads MLB in strikeouts. However, his tendency to allow hits and walks (5.5 hits and 1.7 walks projected today) could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that, while ranked 28th in offense overall, does have some pop, ranking 12th in home runs.

Offensively, the Mariners’ best hitter this season has been Julio Rodriguez, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the standout for the Blue Jays. Over the last seven games, Luke Raley and George Springer have been the top performers for Seattle and Toronto, respectively.

With the Mariners positioned as betting favorites (-145) and projected to have a 61% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, they seem poised to bounce back and take this game. The Blue Jays, despite their underdog status (+125), will look to build on yesterday’s win, but the projections favor Seattle in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this season and has worked it in 30.4% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Daulton Varsho has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 6.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  George Kirby’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 85th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Dominic Canzone’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 89.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 81.6-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-150)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)