Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Marlins vs Rangers – 9/20/25

Miami Marlins

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 20, 2025, they aim to rebound from a tough loss yesterday, where they fell to the Marlins by a score of 6-4. This game marks the second matchup in their ongoing series, with the Rangers currently holding a record of 79-75, while the Marlins sit at 74-80, reflecting a below-average campaign.

On the mound, the Rangers will send out Jack Leiter, whose season has been a mixed bag. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.82, he holds a Power Ranking at 172nd among starting pitchers, indicating that he hasn’t quite performed up to expectations. His last outing on September 15 was uneventful, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which may raise concerns about his consistency moving forward. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings today, with expectations of allowing 2.4 earned runs.

Opposing Leiter is Adam Mazur, a pitcher who has struggled significantly this season, with an alarming 0-4 record and an ERA of 4.85. Mazur has only made 5 starts this year, and his projections indicate he may struggle again, projecting to allow 2.8 earned runs while pitching just 5.0 innings.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 25th in MLB for team batting average, which has hindered their run production despite ranking 18th in home runs. The Marlins, meanwhile, find themselves slightly better at 18th overall, with solid batting averages but a lack of home run power, ranking 25th in that category.

Given the current betting odds, the Rangers are favorites with a moneyline of -155, indicating a high team total of 4.66 runs. This matchup may lean in favor of the Rangers, particularly if Leiter can capitalize on facing a Marlins offense that struggles against flyball pitchers.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Adam Mazur has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Liam Hicks is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s matchup, Eric Wagaman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (80th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Jack Leiter has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.82 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.64 — a 0.82 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Michael Helman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Michael Helman has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.6-mph dropping to 73.3-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Texas Rangers projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-worst of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 75 games at home (+11.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 away games (+19.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.40 Units / 42% ROI)