Find the Official Lineup for Twins vs Phillies – 9/27/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 27, 2025, they sit securely at 95-65, reflecting a season that has captured the attention of fans and analysts alike. The Phillies are coming off an impressive 3-1 victory against the Twins in their last matchup, and the pressure will be on to secure another win against a struggling Minnesota team that has posted a disappointing 69-91 record this year.

The Phillies will turn to left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who is projected to start after a rough outing on September 21, where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Despite that setback, Suarez boasts an impressive ERA of 3.12 and ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is still capable of delivering a strong performance. The projections indicate he will likely pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters on average today.

In contrast, the Twins will send right-hander Mick Abel to the mound. Abel has struggled throughout the season, with a poor ERA of 7.36 in his 7 starts. His last appearance was equally lackluster, giving up 6 earned runs over just 3 innings. The projections are not kind to Abel either, as he is expected to pitch only 4.3 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, further highlighting the disparity in talent between the two starters.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 3rd best team in the league, while the Twins sit at just 17th. This clear advantage, combined with the Phillies’ strong home-field support at Citizens Bank Park, is expected to play a crucial role in today’s game, where they are favored with a high implied team total of 5.10 runs. Ultimately, the combination of strong pitching from Suarez and a potent offense could set the stage for another victory for the Phillies.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Mick Abel – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Mick Abel has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Royce Lewis has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ranger Suarez’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.2% vs. 49.1% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Alec Bohm has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-235)
  The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+16.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+11.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)