Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
(-120/+100)-165
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on April 18, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around. The Orioles, currently sitting at 8-10, are struggling but managed a solid 6-2 victory over the Reds in their last game on April 17. Meanwhile, the Reds are slightly better at 9-10 but have also been underwhelming, coming off an 11-7 loss in their previous outing.
Tonight’s matchup promises to be intriguing, featuring two left-handed pitchers: Cade Povich for the Orioles and Andrew Abbott for the Reds. Povich, ranked as the 165th best starting pitcher, has had a rocky start to the season with a 0-1 record and a 3.60 ERA, although his advanced metrics indicate he may be due for better results. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, but his 4.93 xERA suggests he might struggle more than expected moving forward.
On the other side, Andrew Abbott is coming off a strong performance in his last start, where he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, his 1-0 record and excellent 1.80 ERA may not tell the whole story, as his projections indicate he could face challenges today.
Offensively, the Orioles rank 14th in MLB, showing a balance with their 8th best home run tally. In contrast, the Reds’ offense is ranked 24th, struggling significantly with a 27th place batting average. The projections favor the Orioles, who are expected to score around 5.02 runs, compared to the Reds’ 3.98.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+145)The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Santiago Espinal’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 85.9-mph average last season has dropped off to 80.6-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.382) suggests that Jordan Westburg has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .330 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gary Sanchez, Heston Kjerstad, Tyler O’Neill).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 89 of their last 164 games (+3.55 Units / 2% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Jordan Westburg has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)