Texas Rangers
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+160
As the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers prepare to face off on May 23, 2025, both teams enter the match under challenging circumstances. The White Sox sit at the bottom of the American League with a 15-35 record, indicating a rough season ahead. In contrast, the Rangers find themselves in a more competitive position at 25-26, struggling to achieve consistency. Despite a disheartening recent performance where the White Sox lost 6-5 to the Minnesota Twins on May 21, they still hope to turn their fortunes with Sean Burke on the mound.
Burke, projected to start for Chicago, has had a difficult time this season with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 4.69. His 5.70 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and could face tougher results moving forward. With a high walk rate of 12.4%, Burke’s control issues might be less problematic against a Rangers lineup that ranks 3rd in the least walks taken in MLB. This matchup could play into Burke’s favor if the Rangers remain impatient at the plate.
Texan ace Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, is having an impressive season, boasting a 5-1 record and a stellar 1.47 ERA. However, Mahle’s xFIP of 4.06 indicates he may also be riding a wave of good fortune. The projections indicate he might struggle with allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, but his experience could give the Rangers an edge.
Given their respective offensive rankings—Chicago is 30th in batting average, while Texas ranks 27th—the game total for this matchup is set low at 7.5 runs. The projections favor the Rangers, suggesting a potentially solid chance for them to secure a victory against a struggling White Sox squad.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Given his reverse platoon split, Tyler Mahle has a tough challenge matching up with 6 batters in the projected lineup who share his hand in this game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive talent to be a .345, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .102 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Sean Burke’s 2538-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Edgar Quero has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+160)The 4th-worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Chicago White Sox.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+11.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.30 Units / 38% ROI)