Find the Official Lineup for Padres vs Dodgers – 6/16/2025

San Diego Padres

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the San Diego Padres on June 16, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum. The Dodgers, currently sitting at 43-29, are having a strong season, bolstered by the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Padres are just behind at 39-31, showcasing a solid, yet less explosive, attack ranked 20th overall.

In their last encounter on June 15, the Dodgers edged out the Padres with a thrilling 5-4 victory. The Padres, on the other hand, came off an impressive 8-2 win, which may give them a psychological edge heading into this matchup. However, the Dodgers’ dominant offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in home runs this season with 112, could pose a significant challenge for Padres starter Dylan Cease. Cease, while a respectable #21 ranked pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has struggled with a 2-5 record and has an average ERA of 4.28. His projections suggest a rough outing, particularly facing a potent lineup that excels in turning fly balls into home runs.

Shohei Ohtani, projected to start for the Dodgers, has had his ups and downs this season. Though he comes in with an average projection of 1.0 innings pitched and 0.9 hits allowed, his recent stats show promise with a solid last start. This matchup presents an intriguing contrast, with the Dodgers’ elite offense battling against a pitcher who has been known to be vulnerable.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Dodgers favored at a moneyline of -155, betting enthusiasts may want to keep an eye on how this dynamic plays out. If the Dodgers’ offense can capitalize on Cease’s high flyball rate, they could deliver a significant blow to the Padres’ chances of winning this first game of the series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Casparius.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The San Diego Padres (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Ben Casparius has been lucky this year, notching a 2.86 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.49 — a 1.63 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Over the past week, Max Muncy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.50 Units / 52% ROI)