Find the Official Lineup for Nationals vs Phillies – 8/24/2025

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Washington Nationals on August 24, 2025, they come off a resounding victory, having won their last game decisively. The Phillies, currently sitting at 75-54, are enjoying a strong season and are well-positioned in the National League East. In stark contrast, the Nationals are struggling at 53-76, showcasing a disappointing campaign.

The matchup sees the Phillies sending Ranger Suarez to the mound, who has been one of the more effective pitchers this season, ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Suarez holds a solid 3.25 ERA and projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.4 earned runs on average, making him a favorable option against a weak Nationals lineup devoid of power—ranking 28th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who has had a rough year with a 5.30 ERA and a reputation as one of the least effective pitchers in MLB. Irvin’s projections are not promising either, as he’s expected to allow 3.6 earned runs and strike out just 3.5 batters on average. This disparity in pitching can heavily tilt the game in favor of the Phillies.

Offensively, Philadelphia ranks as the 6th best team in MLB, while Washington sits at a troubling 24th. With the Phillies’ potent lineup, including a recent surge from their best hitter, who boasts a .421 batting average over the last week, they should capitalize on the Nationals’ pitching struggles.

Given the Phillies’ substantial -275 betting line and the Nationals’ +235 underdog status, it’s evident where the betting public is leaning. With such a favorable matchup, the Phillies are expected to deliver another strong performance as they aim to maintain their momentum in the playoff race.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jake Irvin’s change-up percentage has risen by 5.1% from last year to this one (3.6% to 8.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.264) suggests that Jacob Young has been unlucky this year with his .224 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this season (89.5 mph) below where it was last year (90.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Kyle Schwarber has big-time power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin doesn’t generate many whiffs (25th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• As a team, Philadelphia Phillies hitters have excelled when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 2nd-best in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+14.81 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 65 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)