Find the Official Lineup for Giants vs Rockies – 7/20/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants are set to clash in the second game of their series on July 20, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, currently languishing with a dismal 35-63 record, will look to build on their 7-3 victory over the Giants from the previous night. Meanwhile, the Giants, who are having a subpar season with a 47-51 record, will aim to bounce back from that loss.

On the mound for the Rockies will be left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a tough season with a 6.00 ERA and a 1-3 record in eight starts. Despite his struggles, Freeland’s 4.42 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. However, his projections for today are not encouraging, with an expected 3.4 earned runs allowed over 5.0 innings pitched. Freeland’s recent performance has been mixed, but he did pitch well in his last outing, going seven innings with two earned runs and nine strikeouts.

The Giants will counter with right-hander Logan Webb, ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Webb has been solid this season with a 3.47 ERA and a 7-7 record over 20 starts. Despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven earned runs over five innings, Webb’s 2.79 FIP indicates he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Today’s projections have Webb allowing 2.8 earned runs over 6.2 innings pitched, making him a favorable option.

Offensively, the Rockies have been average, ranking 15th in MLB in both overall offense and home runs. Brenton Doyle, their standout hitter, boasts a .279 batting average with 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season. On the other hand, the Giants, led by Matt Chapman and his .279 average with 13 home runs, have also been average offensively but struggle with power, ranking 24th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases.

The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 25th, while the Giants’ bullpen is a significant strength, ranking 2nd. Given these factors and the projections from THE BAT X, which is the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are favored with a projected win probability of 62% compared to the Rockies’ 38%. Betting odds reflect this with the Giants as -165 favorites and the Rockies as +145 underdogs.

With Webb on the mound and a strong bullpen, the Giants have a clear edge. However, the Rockies’ recent win and Freeland’s potential for a bounce-back performance make this an intriguing matchup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Logan Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Wilmer Flores’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.4-mph average last year has decreased to 83.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Kyle Freeland has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.9% more often this year (25.3%) than he did last season (18.4%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Typically, hitters like Brendan Rodgers who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Sam Hilliard ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 62 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)