Find the Best Yankees vs Angels Picks and Odds – 5/28/2025

New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Angels

On May 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Yankees at Angel Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Yankees, boasting a record of 34-20, are enjoying a strong season and currently sit at the top of the American League. In contrast, the Angels are struggling at 25-29, placing them well below average. This game marks the third in the series, with the Yankees looking to capitalize on their momentum after a recent win.

The pitching matchup features Yusei Kikuchi for the Angels and Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. Kikuchi, ranked as the 125th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a rocky season with a 1-4 record, despite a solid ERA of 3.17. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, and he faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB and leads in home runs with 88. Given Kikuchi’s high flyball rate of 37% and struggles with walks (11.5 BB%), the Yankees’ powerful lineup could exploit these weaknesses effectively.

On the other hand, Clarke Schmidt, rated 61st among MLB starters, holds a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 4.58. His 3.36 xERA indicates he may be due for better fortune. Schmidt’s high walk rate (12.1 BB%) may not be as detrimental against an Angels offense that ranks 2nd least in walks drawn.

The projections favor the Yankees, with an implied team total of 5.02 runs compared to the Angels’ 3.98. However, the Angels’ power—ranking 4th in home runs—could keep them competitive if they can capitalize on any mistakes from Schmidt. With the game total set at 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Yankees’ consistent hitting against Kikuchi’s vulnerabilities.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Clarke Schmidt has relied on his secondary offerings 10% more often this season (89.1%) than he did last season (79.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Anthony Volpe has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season’s 87.6-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.329 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .348 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 2178-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a substantial 111-rpm decline from last season’s 2289-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like Taylor Ward who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Clarke Schmidt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+15.50 Units / 57% ROI)